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Sydney experienced its hottest summer on record. Photograph: Dean Lewins/AAP Wednesday 1 March 2017 00.22EST Last modified on Wednesday 1 March 2017 00.23EST Australia could be heading into another El Nino year according to new analysis by the Bureau of Meteorology, which found the chance Australia would be affected by the phenomenon in 2017 had increased to 50%. Six of the eight models used by Australian climatologists to predict El Nino and La Nina events indicate the El Nino threshold could be reached by July, while seven indicate a steady warming in the Pacific Ocean over the next six months. El Nino is declared when temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are 0.8C above average, and brings a dry winter and spring to southern Australia and a warmer than average spring and summer to the eastern states. It comes as the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) confirmed Sydney had just experienced its hottest summer on record, with mean temperatures 2.8C above the long-term average. Related: Australia's heatwave: some like it hot but not this hot Sydney experienced a record-breaking 26 days of 30C or higher and 11 days of 35C or higher. In 2015 Pacific Ocean temperatures increased to 2C above average, causing the most severe El Nino since the late 1990s. BoM manager of climate prediction services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said it could mean a return to difficult conditions for Australian farmers after what he described as a neutral year in 2016, which produced the best season in decades for Australian grain growers . We have been seeing a fairly steady warming up of those waters [in the tropical Pacific Ocean] since the start of the year, Watkins said. The trend is significant enough to place Australia on El Nino watch, which occurs when the chance of El Nino rises to 50%. In any given year the chance of El Nino sits at 25%, Watkins said, so a watch status means it is twice as likely to occur.